Our analysis of DataRepublican's "Democracy Files" (Oct. 19–20, 2026) · Research and analysis: Guided AI (independent research) · Version 29, 2026-11-15
DataRepublican's release prompted this page, but the research, findings and conclusions here are ours, not hers.
Short answer: the groups named in the Files are building and running the machinery: organizing the protests, training thousands of people to confront ICE, setting up a "war room," taking plans to governors, publishing a guide for federal workers to slow-walk orders from inside their agencies, getting their toolkit for elected officials onto the U.S. Conference of Mayors' website, planning outreach to foreign "Heads of State" so they are "ready to recognize" the movement's idea of a "legitimate" outcome, publishing a plan for a private "parallel vote count" to "validate" the results and then "mass noncooperation" to "enforce" them, briefing independent candidates for Congress in private on their "emergency scenarios," running a years-long campaign to get the security forces to refuse "unlawful orders," and taking in millions of dollars from the same few big foundations. The same months brought riots, arson and armed attacks on ICE. People connected to these networks have been arrested. A court has not yet tied any group named in the Files directly to the arson or assaults, and the federal money investigations are still open. DataRepublican's own Part 9 also found no hidden central office: what ties the groups together is shared funders, a published strategy, one word list and a few people in many rooms. A separate strand, from her Part 16 (Nov. 7), is the thing these same networks did in the open and lawfully: a massive 2026 get-out-the-vote operation — she maps "178 entries" of NGOs, unions, PACs and foundations — that she says, not fraud, is what produced the Democratic wins. And her Nov. 8 Special Edition adds one more documented item: written contingency plans — a 2020 Transition Integrity Project war-game and an April 2026 organizing document headed "when the Rubicon is crossed" — for occupying capitols and calling general strikes "if duly elected leaders are not seated." Those are plans for a response to a seating fight, not actions taken, and after a Democratic win their trigger could only be pulled by the President's side (see After the election and Who). And the "re-founding" step that was only a plan in the recordings is now a public, dated event: the same RAD leadership's Nationwide Deliberation Campaign holds its public launch Nov. 16–20 under the AllSides/NCDD banner (see Who).
What each group has done.
| Group | Documented actions | Arrests and charges |
|---|---|---|
| DSA |
|
Austin DSA-endorsed city council candidate Misael Ramos was arrested Sept. 26, 2026, at a protest after an ICE shooting; police said three people there were charged with riot participation. In Minneapolis, prosecutors have charged 15 members of Direct Action Minnesota, a separate group, not DSA. |
| Indivisible / No Kings |
|
We found no charges against Indivisible or its leaders. |
| 50501 | Organized protest days nationwide from Feb. 2025. Its New Jersey chapter co-hosted a Tesla Takedown protest. | None found. Investigators have not tied the 2025 Tesla arsons to the organizers. |
| NSL4A + Horizons Project | Spent the summer of 2026 cultivating elected officials. Ran an in-person tabletop exercise in D.C. on Sept. 1. Stood up a war room and nine focus states. Released a "Toolkit for Elected Officials: Managing Potential Military Intervention in the Midterm Elections," developed under the Horizons Project, which tells officials to "speak with one voice"; the U.S. Conference of Mayors posts it on its own election-security page (we checked it Oct. 26). Asked Senate staff to get a senator to publicly dispute the President's intelligence. Advises election offices to keep pre-approved checklists ready for when troops arrive. Wrote to every state's election officials (March 2026). Its Insurrection Act Working Group, led by Mike Smith, has "generally discussed boycotts and strikes as potential actions." In April 2026 it stopped recording its meetings "per our legal counsel's advice," because the recordings "could all be required for a subpoena." Zeitz says on tape that the United Democracy Alliance is "being led under" NSL4A. | None. |
| United Democracy Alliance (UDA) | An umbrella over the "blocking" groups (No Kings, Indivisible, 50501, MoveOn and the lawsuit groups, as Zeitz lists them on tape). By the organizers' own account, it has "four red lines for mobilization," is "developing a situation room," and plans for the midterms "and beyond." Organizers on the calls describe it as "not public," "secret" and "hush-hush." DataRepublican found no website, member list, leadership or public launch as of Oct. 23. | None. Nothing on the record shows what it has done yet, only what it plans. |
| Federal Workers Alliance for Democracy (FWAD), formerly "Federal Workers Against DOGE" | Publishes a "Resistance Menu" for federal employees, still on its website (we checked it Oct. 25): "Hide threatened programs within bigger programs," "When orders keep changing back and forth, pick the one you want to follow," "Develop selective hearing, forgetfulness, or blame your workload," "Practice malicious compliance," "Be subtle," "Practice deniability." It also says, "Do not engage in waste, fraud, abuse, or law-breaking." Endorsed RAD's published strategy, and sits on the steering committee of the campaign to draft a "People's Proposal" of structural and constitutional reforms by 2028. Its director told a RAD forum he was "very excited to contribute to the 'block' pillar." RAD planned a tabletop exercise with FWAD; DataRepublican found no record that it ran. FWAD claims, in a RAD proposal, that it has enabled workers "to privately reverse numerous Executive Branch actions." That claim is not verified. | None. Two current federal workers in the files were not named; DataRepublican says she passed their names to contacts in their agencies. |
| The "resist unlawful orders" campaign and the Hegseth impeachment (Part 15) | Across its own materials the movement has pushed one message since 2020: make obeying "unlawful orders" risky. The 2020 "Hold the Line" guide put it in writing; a June 30, 2025 Renew to Thrive breakout practiced talking "police officers, ICE agents, National Guardsmen" into "down[ing] their arms"; RAD's June 2026 strategy says to "discourage the execution of unlawful orders"; a Sept. 2026 RAD working paper wants "a public reference point for refusing an unlawful order… named by elected officials of both parties"; and a Freedom Trainers tip sheet files Sen. Mark Kelly's Nov. 2025 "illegal orders" video "as a tactic." On Sept. 15, 2026, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie filed and read eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Hegseth — six charging compliance with "unlawful orders." DataRepublican's Part 15 read the impeachment as supplying the movement's "both parties" reference point and as a "first move" toward President Trump. On Nov. 10 the House voted 211–204 to send the articles to the Judiciary Committee instead of holding a floor vote, killing the push for the rest of this Congress; Massie was the only Republican opposed to tabling it. | None. Impeachment, the "Seditious Six" video, and urging refusal of unlawful orders are the Constitution's process and protected speech. The Pentagon investigated Sen. Kelly and the FBI opened an inquiry into the other five lawmakers, but no charges followed. Nothing ties Massie, who says he opposes impeaching Trump, to the network, and the House itself declined to advance the articles. |
| The funders and the messengers (Democracy Fund, Open Society, Ford; ASO Communications) |
|
None. Funding and messaging are lawful. DataRepublican: "Funding isn't giving orders." |
| RAD / Democracy Renewal Group / DemocracyAID | Wrote an options memo for governors on taking over if the federal government is "deemed illegitimate," and delivered it, by their own account, to the Democratic Governors Safeguarding Democracy group and to several governors' offices. Ran invite-only "noncooperation" workshops for laid-off federal employees. Its strategy drafts went from "Seed non-compliance by federal employees in dangerous and illegal activities" (Nov. 2025) to "provide legal defense for public officials who refuse to comply" (published June 2026), and a September paper proposes a state compact to "provide cover" for that non-cooperation. A Democracy Renewal Group member wrote in an Aug. 6 call chat that they were "starting to consult federal workers on how to do some blocking inside the govt agencies during emergency situations - but please do not put that on the form." It also passed the CIA "Simple Sabotage" manual to officials still inside the government. Brought in foreign activists to coach U.S. organizers (July 9). Its "Meeting the Moment" proposal (Sept. 9) budgets $40,000 for an "International Solidarity" track, managed by Eric Manton and Paul Zeitz, for "private diplomatic outreach" to the UN, "Heads of State" and the EU "so that international actors are ready to recognize and support a legitimate, peaceful renewal process"; its own Sept. 28 notes call that "conditional development work, not funded implementation." On Oct. 23, Enrique Roig, a contributor to RAD's published strategy, met Catalonia's foreign minister about "the scenarios that are opening up" before the midterms; DataRepublican found nothing in the files tying that meeting to RAD. Ran the Jan. 15, 2026 forum where 11 working groups, with NSL4A, Indivisible, Braver Angels and others present, planned around the "election meltdown" and "militarization" scenarios. Its militarization room's notes include "Make sure that protests/protesters remain non-violent" alongside training from Freedom Trainers / Beautiful Trouble. Nov. 16–20, 2026: Zeitz and Reiff publicly launch the Nationwide Deliberation Campaign's "What Comes Next?" roundtables (hosted by AllSides, with NCDD, Mediators Foundation, Better Together America, Peacebuilders and Renew to Thrive as partners), feeding national reports in December and a five-layer process toward a "People's Proposal" starting January 2027 — the step this series has named since Part 1, now running in public under its own name and dates. | None. Public roundtables and a reform proposal are lawful organizing and speech. |
| The independent-candidate track: Independent National Convention / "Fulcrum Caucus" (Part 11) | A campaign plan to elect a handful of independents who deny both parties a majority and use their votes for "arm-twisting" on reforms. RAD and Independent Voice held a private, invitation-only Sept. 9 "Emergency Scenarios Briefing" for "independent candidates and campaign operatives" on the Insurrection Act, an "Election Meltdown" and a "Threat to the Constitutional Order"; Zeitz says South Dakota Senate candidate Brian Bengs was there. Osborn's 2024 field director is listed as "Interested / Proposed" for the steering group in RAD's emergency plan. Christopher Life's super PAC reported $79,300 for four independent Senate candidates on Oct. 16 (FEC). | None. Running candidates and super PAC spending are lawful. The briefing was not recorded, and nothing released ties Dan Osborn himself to the emergency scenarios. |
| Seed the Vote and Freedom Trainers (published plans; not in her releases, reported Oct. 29) | Seed the Vote, which claims 17,000+ volunteers and 25+ partner groups, published a "Fight, Win, Prove, and Enforce" plan on May 18, 2026: "parallel vote counting infrastructure, separate from the government," which its "legal partners" are "looking at building," and then "an infrastructure of mass noncooperation across the country." It credits the framework to Hardy Merriman, a USAID "Powered by the People" adviser from 2023 to 2025. Freedom Trainers posts an 18-scenario "Election Defense Scenarios" guide with messaging by ASO Communications; its scenario for a Congress that refuses to seat winners calls for "international recognition" and "daily rallies and strikes at the Capitol." | None. Publishing plans and counting votes privately are lawful. Nothing shows a parallel count has been built. |
| European progressive foundations (FEPS, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung; reported Oct. 29) | Per Natalie Winters's Oct. 29 report, a closed-door June 3, 2026 roundtable on "resistance to Trump and MAGA" before the U.S. midterms was convened by European Parliament Vice-President Katarina Barley, organized by the Foundation for European Progressive Studies and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, and, per the agenda, held with "financial support of the European Parliament," with University of Georgia professor Cas Mudde as keynote. DataRepublican endorsed it as "plugging a lot of holes in the Democracy Files from a different direction." | None. A meeting held in Europe and funded by a foreign parliament is lawful; see the law page. |
| Pace e Bene (published plan; not in her releases, reported Oct. 31) | Per Natalie Winters (Oct. 31), this nonviolence-training group published a "shutdown checklist" urging supporters to stockpile five to ten days of food and to prepare coordinated walkouts from work, school and shopping if the midterm results are "sabotaged or ignored," calling No Kings a "trial run." An Oct. 6 message named Georgia, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Arizona and D.C. and addressed election officials, attorneys general and judges. DataRepublican reposted it. | None. A general strike or economic boycott is lawful First Amendment activity; nothing shown ties the group to the DRG/RAD/UDA network or to any violence. |
| The 2026 turnout machine (Part 16): Movement Voter Project/PAC, Way to Win, Battleground Alliance, State Voices, GYJC, Interfaith America, MoveOn, No Kings, NAACP c4, unions and more | Ran the 2026 Democratic ground game, in the open and on the record: Wimsatt's Movement Voter re-granted "$34 million to more than 300 groups in 38 states"; Way to Win's "19M for 19M" campaign targeted 2020 voters who skipped 2024; State Voices claims "more than 500,000 new voters" and "26 million contacts"; the Voter Participation Center mailed "4.7 million registration applications"; GYJC, Interfaith America and Bishop Barber's outreach worked youth and faith; the Lawyers' Committee, SMART Elections and the ACLU ran poll-watching; AFSCME's 527 "raised $41 million"; and the Texas Organizing Project PAC asked donors for $275,000 to "scale black turnout" for a named candidate. DataRepublican maps "178 entries" and says FEC field spending came in "about 75% ahead" of 2022 after Sept. 30, reaching "$82 million" vs. the GOP's "$26 million." Nov. 13: CNN's KFILE independently reported a separate, previously unknown super PAC, Our Heritage Matters (FEC ID C00963736), which registered Oct. 15 — after the last pre-election disclosure deadline, so its donors aren't public until Dec. 3 — and spent over $8.5 million in 61 races, including on Libertarian spoiler candidates against Republicans in Kansas (won by Democrat Adam Hamilton) and Iowa. DataRepublican reposted it: "Yes." | None, and none alleged. DataRepublican stresses this used "every kind of legal vehicle" and that "most of it is legal"; partisan targeting is lawful for PACs and c4s, nonpartisan registration and poll-watching for c3s. Her only law-adjacent point is partisan work under a charity's shared brand, with no accusation that any c3 broke the rules. Late-disclosing super PAC spending, including Our Heritage Matters, is also lawful under current FEC timing rules. |
What happened on the ground, 2025–2026.
The money and the bail.
Where the evidence stops. Many of the protest prosecutions have since fallen apart. Charges were dropped in the "Broadview Six" case and in some Minneapolis cases. We found no charging document or court record yet showing that protesters were paid; the FBI and Treasury money investigations could change that. We have not seen a court tie DSA, Indivisible, 50501, NSL4A or RAD to a specific act of arson or assault. Nor have we seen a record of any federal worker actually blocking a lawful order: the "Resistance Menu" is advice, the FWAD exercise was planned, not shown to run, and the "privately reverse" claim is FWAD's own. Nor is there a hidden command center: DataRepublican compared the groups' tax-form phone numbers, offices and bookkeepers and found none shared, with right-leaning groups overlapping just as much, and she calls the states' lawsuits and Guard decisions "lawful federalism." The foreign-government track is the same story: written down and budgeted, called unfunded in the group's own notes, with one meeting on the public record that no document in the files connects to it. The parallel vote count is a plan on paper: Seed the Vote's own words are that "legal partners" are "looking at building" it, and the Freedom Trainers scenario depends on a Congress refusing to seat winners. The independent-candidate track is lawful politics: the record shows candidates briefed on the emergency scenarios and a super PAC spending in public, but no recording of what the candidates were told and nothing showing that any candidate signed on to the emergency plan. The Hegseth impeachment is lawful too: it is the Constitution's own process, brought by a Republican on War Powers grounds, and no document ties it to the network. What the "resist unlawful orders" chain documents is a pattern, not a crime — a movement that urged the security forces to refuse "unlawful orders" for years, and now an impeachment that puts the President's orders on trial. What the record does show is that they built the organization, the training, the money and the political plan, and that confrontations with ICE kept following. The 2026 turnout machine in Part 16 is the clearest case of where the evidence stops short of a crime: it is lawful get-out-the-vote work, reported to the FEC and the IRS, and DataRepublican herself says "most of it is legal" and that her data shows turnout, not fraud, produced the result. Her figures are her own readings of the filings, the charity (c3) grant records are not yet public, and "matching targets alone doesn't show joint planning." CNN's Nov. 13 report on Our Heritage Matters, confirmed independently in FEC records, is a real, named example of money moving late and without disclosure — but it is a separate super PAC from anything in her recordings, its spending was legal, and nothing ties it to the groups named in the Files.
Why it matters. Even with no violence at all, the plan in the recordings would declare an elected government illegitimate, have governors "wall off" federal officials, enlist career staff to "run out the clock" on the elected President, and re-found the country "extra-constitutionally." None of that is constitutional. Their election plan is the honest part, and voters should look at it closely: a handful of independents in a 50–50 Senate, coached by the same people who wrote the emergency scenarios, could decide who controls Congress. It doesn't take a conductor: when the same foundations fund every lane and the same word list goes to every group, hundreds of organizations can move as one on election night. Watch for a private "parallel count" that disagrees with the official canvass: Seed the Vote's own order is count, then "mass outrage," then "mass noncooperation," the order it says worked in Venezuela and Serbia. Watch who says "voters decided," and when, and which foreign governments say it with them: their own paper wants "allied governments" to know "what a legitimate result looks like before one is disputed" and to "apply pressure on the executive," meaning the President the American people elected. And NSL4A is preparing people for standoffs with federal troops at polling places, after a year that showed how fast a crowd can turn on the officers in front of it. The same effort runs toward the chain of command itself: peel the police, the Guard and the military away from the President by teaching them that his orders are "unlawful," then, as Part 15 argues, use an impeachment that charges exactly that to put the President's orders on trial. Impeachment is lawful and the movement's hand in it is unproven, but the direction is worth watching. And Part 16 is a useful corrective in the other direction: the biggest single reason the Democrats won in 2026, on DataRepublican's own reading, was not fraud but a legal, lavishly funded turnout operation that the right did not match. Her lesson for conservatives is organizational, not criminal — build the same ground game — and it is worth taking at face value.